New England came from behind to win Game 6, 5-2, and now has the chance to knock this Canes squad out of the playoffs for the third time in the era of coach Rod Brind’Amour.
As this series has progressed, Carolina has fought hard to gain a home-ice advantage, and this series has been no exception, with the home team winning 6-0.
At PNC Arena, which of these teams will be able to extend their winning streaks?
Boston Bruins
Boston will have to play much better than it has in Raleigh if it hopes to extend its season. The Bruins are 0-3 while being outscored 15-4 — or 11-4 if empty-net goals are excluded — in three games.
As expected from two teams with legitimate Stanley Cup hopes, Boston has played to an expected goals rate of 49.63 in this series.
Defensive excellence was an issue for both teams throughout the regular season. Boston was fourth in the NHL in goals allowed, while Carolina was the team that allowed the fewest goals.
At the end of the regular season, Boston had the league’s lowest projected goals-against an average of 1.93, which helped propel the Bruins to the top of the Stanley Cup betting odds.
We’ve seen some tight-checking play in the past, but it’s frequently backfired when one team is left chasing the game late in the game.
Since the start of the series, the two teams have averaged 6.5 goals apiece. Bruce Cassidy-coached teams, on the other hand, aren’t likely to produce such a mark over a longer period.
Knowing that they will not be able to score their way past defensive breakdowns, Boston heads to Carolina. The Hurricanes are expected to play a well-rounded game, and the Bruins will be no exception.
Boston’s best players must be more effective offensively if the Bruins are to progress. Three points from Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak in the three games in Raleigh.
The status of Bruins defender Matt Grzelcyk will be determined closer to game time, but otherwise, the team is expected to go full strength.
The Bruins will start Jeremy Swayman in goal. Swayman has continued his strong play from the regular season into the series, with +1.1 goals saved above-anticipated rating and a.913 save % since Game 3.
Carolina Hurricanes
If the Carolina Hurricanes had played 60 minutes in each game, they would have already won this series.
Carolina has looked sharper overall, but they have also made more costly blunders at the worst times.
Carolina, like Boston, isn’t going into Game 7 expecting to have a lot of chances to score. Instead, the Canes plan to keep multiple layers of defense in front of the puck and minimize errors.
With the loss of goaltender Frederik Andersen, Carolina is expected to lose Jordan Martinook as well.
Carolina goalie Antti Raanta will open the game. Through five games, he has +0.7 goals saved over the anticipated rating and a.926 save percentage.
Bruins vs. Hurricanes Pick
I’ve been startled by the high-scoring nature of the games throughout the series, but I don’t expect that tendency to continue in the final match.
These totals have been greatly inflated by late flurries and empty-net catches in the majority of cases. This pivotal Game 7 is shaping up to be a tight-checking contest with plenty of possibilities for high-quality scoring.
The under has gone 11-6 in the last 17 Game 7s, averaging 5.11 goals per game. It’s more likely that we’ll see the defensive prowess of these two teams shine through in this matchup.
At -120, I believe we can get a good deal on a low-scoring, tight-checking game in Game 7. Carolina has a slight edge in this one, but a line of -135 seems reasonable.
The vast majority of goals have been scored in the third period or even late in the third period. I believe that we’ll see a similar scenario tomorrow, with both teams attempting to avoid making a mistake in front of the goal.
If you’re betting for the first period to stay under 1.5 at +100, I’d play that down to -110.
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