The Grammys are presented annually by the Recording Academy, a group comprised of working musicians from all over the world. Once upon a time, the Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and several other genre awards were chosen by anonymous, unaccountable nomination review committees within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
However, in 2021, the Academy eliminated almost all of these committees, leaving the nominations for Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and several other genre awards to the voting membership at large. Below you’ll find the most up-to-date odds on the racecourse, which were calculated using the collective forecasts of Gold Derby users. We’ll be updating this table throughout the season to reflect the ever-shifting nature of those odds.
SEEGrammy Album of the Year: All the Winners in Grammy Awards History
Under the committee system, nominations frequently sparked heated debate. At the 2021 awards, for instance, The Weeknd didn’t get a single nomination despite a highly acclaimed, chart-topping album (“After Hours”) and a song (“Blinding Lights”) so popular that Billboard listed it as their number-one single of 2021 (and the number-three single of 2022). (and the number-three single of 2022). Like other musicians such as Halsey and Drake, The Weeknd has voiced his displeasure with the Academy and has stated that he will not be attending this year’s Grammy Awards. There have also been suspicions of improper voting techniques.
In 2022, the first year without the committee, the Grammys boosted the top general field categories to 10 nominations apiece, which came not long after those categories had been enlarged from five nominees to eight in 2019. Most of the Album of the Year nominees were well-known recording artists in the pop genre (Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, Justin Bieber, Doja Cat, Lil Nas X, and Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga).
Surprisingly, the R&B album “We Are” by Jon Batiste triumphed against albums with substantially higher sales. This shown that voters do not always choose the most popular tune in the lineup, even without the committees to promote less visible records.
1. ’30’ by Adele
Current Odds: 21/2
Label: Columbia
Released: November 19, 2021
Grammy History: She has won 15 Grammys over the course of her career, including all of her last 13 nominations. She previously won Album of the Year for “21” and “25.”
2. ‘An Evening with Silk Sonic’ by Silk Sonic
Current Odds: 12/1
Label: Aftermath/Atlantic
Released: November 12, 2021
Grammy History: Bruno Mars has won 15 Grammys, and Anderson Paak has won eight. That includes the four awards they won together in 2021, including Record and Song of the Year for “Leave the Door Open.”
3. ‘Harry’s House’ by Harry Styles
Current Odds: 13/1
Label: Columbia/Erskine
Released: May 20, 2022
Grammy History: He won his first Grammy in 2021 for Best Pop Solo Performance (“Watermelon Sugar”). He has yet to be nominated for Album of the Year.
4. ‘ Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers’ by Kendrick Lamar
Current Odds: 14/1
Label: PGLang/Top Dawg/Aftermath/Interscope
Released: May 13, 2022
Grammy History: The hip-hop star has won 14 Grammys, but has never won Album of the Year despite five nominations in that category. He has been nominated for his own albums “Good Kid, M.A.A.D City,” “To Pimp a Butterfly,” and “Damn.” He was also nominated as a featured artist on Beyonce’s “Lemonade” and as the leading contributor to the “Black Panther” soundtrack.
5. ‘Renaissance’ by Beyonce
Current Odds: 16/1
Label: Parkwood/Columbia
Released: July 29, 2022
Grammy History: She has won 28 Grammys, making her the most awarded woman in history. She previously received Album of the Year bids for “I Am… Sasha Fierce,” “Beyonce,” and “Lemonade,” plus an additional nom as a featured artist on Lady Gaga’s “The Fame Monster,” but she has yet to win.
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