Russian troops are massing on the border with Ukraine. The world has been working hard since 1945 to build a rules-based international system, and a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be disastrous not only for Ukraine and Russia but also for this system.
War should be avoided at all costs, and diplomatic efforts should be made to avoid military confrontation. A military invasion of Ukraine by Russia is possible, but not inevitable. A move of this magnitude would be extremely brave, impulsive, and perhaps disastrous, but it would be consistent with prior dangerous provocations conducted by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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If Putin decides to invade Ukraine again, however, the United States must take the lead in a strong response. A choice to use military force on the part of Russia would be a strategic failure, a move that would backfire in the long run and have devastating economic and geopolitical consequences for the Kremlin.
The stakes are really high. The destruction of Ukraine’s democracy by the Kremlin would be a catastrophe for the Ukrainian people and a major setback for the spread of democracy around the world. Moreover, the post–1945 international order would be seriously threatened by a Russian invasion of Ukraine. There has been a significant decrease in interstate conflict worldwide during the past fifty years. It follows that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have far-reaching effects.
The return to the might-makes-right geopolitics of the 19th and early 20th century may be triggered if an invasion were perceived as effective and cost Russia very little. Russian nationalists in the Kremlin aren’t the only ones with irredentist aspirations.
The desire to reshape borders, seize new land, and reunite with family members of the same ethnic group who have been “stranded” abroad is universal. Russia’s dismemberment of its democratic neighbourr could encourage other states to use force against weaker neighbours or rivals, and it could embolden China to try to do the same with Taiwan.
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